Serie A Matchday 33: A statistical guide to this weekend’s matches

Mattia Destro (left) and Genoa desperately need three points against Spezia

Mattia Destro (left) and Genoa desperately need three points against Spezia

With the Scudetto race all but over, the focus in Serie A turns towards the battle for the Champions League.

Antonio Conte has guided Inter to the summit, where they currently hold a 10-point lead over neighbours AC Milan with six games remaining. 

Below the Nerazzurri, Milan, Atalanta, Juventus, Napoli and Lazio are battling it out for the three remaining Champions League places.

At the other end of the table, consecutive victories have lifted Cagliari to within three points of safety. In fact, the Isolani enter the weekend only five points behind 13th-placed Fiorentina. 

The last remaining relegation spot could be filled by one of six teams currently treading water.

Genoa vs Spezia (Saturday, 2pm)

Both teams could still yet be relegated but know a win is probably enough to guarantee another season in Serie A. 

Fortunately for Genoa, they are at home. 

Their average of 1.23 goals per 90 is almost double what they manage on the road and they have only failed to score in six percent of their games at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. 

Genoa striker Mattia Destro has scored four goals in his last five games against newly-promoted sides in Serie A, including one in the reverse fixture against Spezia this term.

Spezia are not great travellers and have lost their last five on the road. They have failed to score in a quarter of their away matches and are conceding, on average, 2.13 goals per 90 minutes. 

Saturday’s other games

Parma vs Crotone (5pm)
Sassuolo vs Sampdoria (7.45pm)

Inter vs Verona (Sunday, 2pm)

Inter Milan are closing in on the Scudetto
Inter Milan are closing in on the Scudetto

Conte’s side are on a 16-match unbeaten streak in Serie A. 

Victory over Verona would temporarily extend their lead at the top to 13 points, heaping all the pressure on neighbours Milan ahead of Monday night’s game. 

Inter are rampant at the San Siro, averaging 2.6 goals per game. They have won to nil in 40% of their home ties and no visiting team has prevented them from scoring. 

Romelu Lukaku (14) could become the fourth different Inter player to score 15+ home goals in a single Serie A campaign in the last 45 years, after Christian Vieri (19 in 2002-03), Diego Milito (17 in 2011-12) and Mauro Icardi (16 in 2016-17 and 2017-18).

Verona are better when on the road this season. However, they head into this clash on a bad run of form having lost six of their last seven.

Watch Inter Milan vs Verona for FREE on the LiveScore app on Sunday at 2pm (UK and Ireland only).

Fiorentina vs Juventus (Sunday, 2pm)

Remarkably, Fiorentina have conceded three goals in each of their last three home games. 

Beaten 3-2 by both Atalanta and Milan, they only managed a draw against second-bottom Parma. 

Giuseppe Iachini’s side need at least a point to keep their head above the water, with just five points separating them and the relegation zone. 

A bright spark for the Florence side this season has been the form of Dusan Vlahovic. 

With his goal against Verona, Vlahovic is now on 16 for the season. The last player to score more in a single Serie A campaign before turning 22 was Mirko Vucinic in 2004-05 with Lecce. 

Juventus are in a must-win position. With Napoli breathing down their necks, Andrea Pirlo’s men cannot afford to drop points in the run-in if they are to finish in the top four.

Away from Turin this season, Juve are far from dominant. They have conceded over a goal per game, keeping a clean sheet in just 13% of their away fixtures. 

Sunday’s other games

Benevento vs Udinese (11.30am)
Cagliari vs Roma (5pm)
Atalanta vs Bologna (7.45pm)

Torino vs Napoli (Monday, 7.30pm)

Gennaro Gattuso's Napoli need to beat AC Milan to keep their Champions League hopes alive
Gennaro Gattuso's Napoli need to beat AC Milan to keep their Champions League hopes alive

Depending on what happens over the weekend, Torino could kick off level on points with 18th-placed Cagliari. 

Despite racking up eight points from a possible 12 in April, the hosts have not quite managed to secure safety just yet. 

When playing in Turin, their games tend to involve a lot of goals. In 80% of their home matches, both teams have scored, so coming up against a goal-hungry Napoli side might have came at the worst possible time. 

Gennaro Gattuso’s team dismantled Lazio on Thursday, putting on a goalscoring clinic in a 5-2 victory. 

A win over Torino would keep the pressure on Juventus in the race for the last Champions League spot and Napoli are averaging more than two goals per 90 this season, having failed to score in just nine percent of their games.

Lazio vs AC Milan (Monday, 7.45pm)

If results do not go their way this weekend, a loss for Lazio would all but end their hopes of Champions League football. 

Prior to that heavy defeat to Napoli, Simone Inzaghi’s side had won five on the spin while they are unbeaten at home since December 12. 

Milan’s form away from the San Siro is one of the main reasons they find themselves in second. 

The Rossoneri average over two goals per 90 minutes on their travels while conceding less than a goal per game. 

Perhaps even more impressive is the fact they have scored in both halves in almost three-quarters of their away matches. 

Watch Lazio vs AC Milan live for FREE on the LiveScore app on Monday at 7.45pm (UK and Ireland only).

Tags

Serie AGenoaSpeziaFiorentinaJuventusInterHellas VeronaTorinoSSC NapoliAC MilanLazio